COMMENT –Jared Diamond’s work, Guns Germs and Steel is a pivotal work in the understanding of past phase change within societies. Jared is unique in his cross-disciplinary approach combining many fields — biology, anthropology, history, medicine and others.
I haven’t finished Collapse yet but in this talk from TED, Diamond outlines the key principles of societal collapse.
Error: Required parameter “file” is missing!
Diamond’s observations & books have been extraordinarily influential to my thinking and writing.
Especially my work on 2thinknow nascent trend analysis, allowing for the prediction of trends & events.
I started reading …

COMMENT, Australia, USA, UK – This is a reminder that the world has changed.
Increasingly we live in a consumerist society, obsessed with consumption of the cheap, short term and disposable.
This will end eventually, because quite simply cheap consumption, especially plastic, is based on cheap oil. And cheap labor. And shifting pollution to some one else’s backyard.
So that cheap consumerism will end. Corporations that create polluting products will learn it can’t continue.
I mean what are we doing?
Irrespective of whether you, dear reader, believe in global warming, it has been scientifically, logically, …

TRAVEL, France — When you visit France, there are some paintings you must see to complete your Parisian cultural visit and understand France, and the modern world.
As Ruskin said:
“Great nations write their autobiographies in three manuscripts, the book of their deeds, the book of their words and the book of their art.
“Not one of these books can be understood unless we read the two others, but of the three the only trustworthy one is the last.”

SATIRE, Global – I have noticed a new fad in offices I have been visiting lately.

Need to look like you’re into your job?
Want to look like you care?
Want to disguise the fact you’re lazy?
That a chimpanzee could do your job?

ANALYSIS, Global – We have a lot of goods. Cars, books, stereos, DVDs, printers, computers, Walkmans, toys, clothes, kitchenware, etc.
Even jeans (I don’t know about you, but I’ll never fit into them again!)

When we are finished with goods we throw them out. Doesn’t have to be that way…

ANALYSIS-IN-BRIEF, Global –Tim Berners-Lee is the father of the internet as a useful tool, in the form of the Web. He was there at the web’s birth, as the picture of the CERN web server following shows.

If you want to understand the future of the internet, as a communication medium then read Berners-Lee’s book, “Weaving the Web”.

Just as it seems fast has come todominate our lives, the new trend of Slow … Slow Food, Slow Money, Tree-Changing is become more prominent…

COMMENT, Global – Often that is just too much information. Cell phone users in public often have little discretion.
Cell phones on trains.
Cell phones (or mobiles if you prefer) in restaurants.
Famously, I once heard a man chatting up a woman in a toilet cubicle with the door closed at a cinema. I first thought she was in there with him, then he came out holding a phone.
I wonder what she thought of the loud ‘flush’?
The Market Opportunity for Quiet
Expect a pendulum swing back to quiet and focus.
In the meantime expect a …

ANALYSIS, Sydney & Melbourne, Australia –
An open letter to visiting President Bush.
Mr Bush is in Sydney Australia at current for the APEC summit, this was written just after his joint speech with Mr Howard today.
Dear Mr President,
You spoke at the APEC Summit with our Prime Minister, Mr Howard.
I agreed with your remarks Sir, about freedom and human rights being critical to the world’s future.
But the Oil War is not the way to spread freedom.
This war is deeply unpopular because the people ‘get’ it was not an honest war.
Another’s freedom …

COMMENT, Global — We’ve have been in a post-modernist age for some time now.
But someone forgot to tell those 1950s-loving industrialist neo-cons.
The innovation zeitgeist is with the Creative Age.
Let’s look at where that innovation is for a moment.

COMMENT, Global — The modern world seems complex.
That’s because we’re trying to understand it with modernist 1950s metaphors from the age of the soon-to-be-gone Oil Economy.
The Neo-Cons were really the last hurrah, and just look how well Iraq is working out for them.
That’s despite all the freedoms they managed to crush in Western countries by invoking a straw man of terrorism and turning a blind eye to some desert-dwelling nutcases.
But the fact is they don’t get it. The modern world. The internet. Or trends.

ANALYSIS, Global — Our town, our world, is drowning under a flood of cheap sub-standard products. Products that we can and did once live without.
This is because our modernist global economic system in English-speaking countries largely runs on the manufacture and mass consumption of cheap low-priced goods made from oil-based plastics.
Think about that for a second. What really happens?
The following chain of events was loosely based on media reports of the China pet food story, Fisher Price scandal, and recent other events.
Here is one average scenario:
A company in your city …

COMMENT, Melbourne – In Melbourne broadsheet paper The Age, today there was a neat reminiscence on ‘trains’ from staff writer, Peter Hanlon.
“WE’RE on our way home for Dad’s funeral, his grandson and I. It’s good that we’re going by train; Dad worked 35 years for the railways, back in the days when human beings sold tickets, and machines that accepted only correct change were a dream for the future.”
He goes onto say…
“Whoever wins the next tender to run the state’s public transport would do well to acknowledge that there …

ANALYSIS, Melbourne – Where you work is important to how you are inspired to create & then implement innovation.
Do some of these describe your workplace?
Concrete, gray, drab, cubicle, boxed-in, noisy, mobile phone ringtones from hell, low barriers, bombarded with email, ‘no door’ policy, jokes, noise, prison-like gulag?
Or is it more interesting?
Post-modernist refugee camp for cultural relativists?
Weekend-after recovery center?
Creative desert?
Angst-ridden pit of teenage romance?
So what works for innovation?
One of the perks of having worked at so  many corporations (more than 350) is you get to see what works and what doesn’t …

ANALYSIS, Sydney –The tendency to think cities are homogenous across a country is an untruth.
Melbourne CBD is vastly different to Sydney CBD. (Yes I’m in Sydney once again. City yesterday and Parramatta today.)
Sydney CBD is vastly different to Parramatta.
The culture in the northern & Eastern Suburbs of Sydney are different. Both are affluent eras generally, but the culture is different.
This goes further than cities. Any form of grouping, cities, generational, academic, social, demographic is by nature a generalization.
Grouping theories
To generalise is human nature.
And many times in writing or describing …

2THINKNOW COMMENT, Melbourne – “Left turn at Albuquerque.”
Unless you have watched Bugs Bunny you wouldn’t know that. But chances are you have. No matter where you live.
And you might know:
“Quoi de neuf, docteur ?” (Francais)

” Che succede, amico?” (Italiano)
“Hej šefe koji ti je vrag?” (Yugoslav)
“Eh, What’s Up Doc?” (English)
… or in any other language you care to name.
Bugs Bunny is a cartoon that has almost universal understanding across multiple languages all throughout the world.
Animation lends itself to universal communication.
Animation can be dubbed easily into any language. The lips moving don’t …

COMMENT, Melbourne, Australia — First of all let me say I am not partisan. I vote right, I vote left.
Personally, I think Giuliani, Gore, Clinton and McCain would all make good presidents at different times. Professionally I think Gore, Giuliani and Clinton may all lead to good outcomes for innovation.
The Left/Right divide is increasingly irrelevant, in any case. In a prior analysis from 2thinknowTM I made the case that the real contest is between Engaged and Not Engaged. See: Election innovation: why Left & Right don’t matter.
How Bush happened:
The people …

ANALYSIS, Melbourne –I loved rail as a kid. That trip from the small town I lived in to the ‘big smoke’ always took a 5 hour bus and a train trip.
And there was something inspiring about the rattle of that train.
Nostalgia aside, railways now are once again are on their way to leading the innovation zeitgeist in transport.
Railways – Back-to-the-Future Innovation
In cold hard fiscal terms railways have a bright future with some caveats.
Most importantly, trains have a very long-term future mainly due to the fact that trains carry more passengers …

COMMENT, the World — Despite the aptly named ‘flat-earth’ society the world is still round.
And the world still goes ’round.
Power is about who you know.
Sometimes who you know can be improved by what you know.
But it is important to know why what you know is important to who you may know.
Money is a method of exchange and one way of keeping score.
But money is a game.
It is only by mutual agreement that those who have acquired money alone are treated as those who have power.
It would be interesting if power …

ANALYSIS, Sydney, Australia – Too often too much of what we buy is too disposable.
The innovation zeitgeist is to be found in returning to an old paradigm.
Innovation is the old sensible paradigm
Buy goods that last and are reparable. That is the paradigm.
For environmental and quality of life reasons, this is now an emerging innovation trend in the infancy stages of innovation.
But I’m not saying that this is now easy.
Remember our grandparents repaired what they bought?
Our grandparents saved and purchased long-term value goods. We may think we are wealthier, but …