There may be some surprises in the Transparency International’s 2009 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), a measure of domestic, public sector corruption. Whilst war zones are among the worst, kick-backs, crony capitalism and nepotism means some Western countries fare less well than you might think. It seems institutions and process matter. Read more…

COMMENT, Sydney — The NSW Government of Carr-Iemma-Rees has ended.
Nobody has admitted it yet. The decline trend is well in its death spiral, the day Iemma resigned. There is no rebirth without change.
“The Governor may…..remove from his office, or suspend from the exercise of the same, any person exercising any office, or place, in the State…”
– The Royal Instructions, Clause 10
NSW, Doomed.
NSW politicians have destroyed Australia’s most prosperous …

COMMENT, USA –Few people understand how the economic paradigm has shifted.
2thinknow do.
We predicted it would shift, and that their would be an economic crisis. Correctly. Back in October 2007, before others.
If you would like to see what it all means, including Obama’s election, see these slides on slideshare.
Opportunity for Local Innovation.
There are a lot of economic opportunities out there, but bright minds need opportunity.
Creativity needs its voice. Anyway, look at the slides.
I hope they help you in your quest to profit in the Bear Market.
Thanks to SlideShare for spreading this …

COMMENT, New Zealand –A Gen-Xer, John Key, self-made man, has got the top job as leader of New Zealand. Read more from Tony Wright in The Age.
Trends in Generational Renewal.
It started in Australia. With an almost Gen-X Kevin Rudd, and a decidedly Gen-X Julia Gillard, as deputy.
One year later, it was Obama, in the USA, another Gen-Xer. And significantly self-made. Not another white man, son-of-privilege type.
Now came New Zealand, with self-made money-man, John Key. Like Obama, 47.
Politics still continues to alternate between left-and-right. With New Zealand Left making America’s Obama …

COMMENT, Australia — Nascent trends show that the National (or Country) Party are just about to turn a corner.
Recently the National Party were kingmakers in West Australia State elections.
Now it looks like the National Party may win in the New Zealand elections.
Barnaby’s Voice.
An independent thinker, one of the few who stood up to John Howard, Barnaby Joyce has the leadership & charisma to be a national leader. In 8-12 years.
It may be too soon, and it may not eventuate, but this is an interesting thought.
Trends for the National Party.
Food supply …

Voting machines are unreliable across the United States. How can that be in a major democracy?

ANALYSIS, USA — Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has proven to be a visionary leader of California.
Schwarzenegger, a Republican, married to a Kennedy Democrat, will become the nations most senior Republican, as the party moves back to the centre.
There’s an interesting video of Governor Schwarzenegger’s idea for a “Bipartisan Commission Will Address Chronic Budget Problems”. Read the release here.
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Schwarzenegger Action, Ideas.
Interestingly, Obama winning means Schwarzenegger will be the symbolic leader. Vindicated in opposition to Bush on many policies. Bi-partisan. Moderate. Results-driven. Environmentally-focussed. New ideas.
A lot of power …

ANALYSIS – According to the Polls, Obama should win the US election only a couple of days away.
We hope this time the result is not tangled up in electoral court-cases or misanthropic journalism, as was the case in Gore v Bush.
We’ll look now at how trends support Obama.
Trends Support Obama.
Australia’s Centre Left.
The fortune of leaders are often tied to the same trends in English-speaking countries. Reagan-Thatcher. Clinton-Blair. Bush-Howard.
Australia’s Prime Minister Rudd represents generational change, Obama does too.
2thinknow accurately predicted the result of the Rudd election, and the margin within 1%, …

SLIDES, USA — This slideshow that makes a pithy 7-slide case for Obama.
And if you haven’t tried out SlideShare, click thru & try it out. SlideShare is great for communicating.
Trends.
Trends support change, and a return to a US presidency where the president knows how to do his job.
Whether Obama or McCain, both are fundamentally competent politicians. Paul Daley, sets out the case for change (return to normalcy, decency & competence) in The Age here.
The current US administration deepened the current economic crisis & are now fighting in a war on …

ANALYSIS, USA — According to The Age newspaper online:
“The economy suffered its biggest decline since 2001 in the third quarter, ushering in what may be the worst recession in a quarter-century … Gross domestic product contracted at a 0.3% pace from July to September, according to a Commerce Department report.
“The crisis really kicked up in late September,” Ethan Harris, co-head of US economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We’re going to be looking at a very unfriendly GDP number in the …

COMMENT, China — Chinese leadership in Beijing must be wishing the Olympics would come around soon.
The significance of these 8 good news stories, is that the Beijing government often signals it’s shift in strategic thinking, and engagement, by actions rather than rhetoric.

China’s actions indicate some possibly shift in policies, and increasing inclination in Beijing top openness.
Few understand, the significance of these events, except perhaps Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and some European Union heavyweights.
Lucky 8
Here are 8 (8 is, of course, lucky in China), mostly positive news stories (including one …

COMMENT, Global, Easter — As we sit down and eat our chocolate eggs, and hot cross buns, there is much to be said about Easter and Christianity.
At this time of year, with also various Jewish and Muslim festivals, it seems natural to question one’s faith.

Yet tolerant Christianity is so central to our civilized Western world, as to be indivisible from it.
We forget the Western World is laid of Christian stone…
Laws are a substitute for basic Christian values, in a society of solid values, laws are needed less. For values, not …

ANALYSIS, USA — Wealthy white people with academic economic dogma are a plague on all our wallets, let alone houses.

The economics brains trust of our last 8 years or so of US (and British & Australian) economic policy have been a few rich white guys, right-wing academic economists from big universities like Harvard. These folks theories are to blame for severity of the coming US recession.
Why?
Most universities (like Harvard) have a fair mix of dissent; but the current US administration selected all economists (and think-tanks) with far-Right free market views.
Clinton, …

COMMENT, Melbourne — Let’s face it privatized public transport has failed.
It’s not the same elsewhere in the world — where Public Transport is clean, reliable and safe.

Public transport succeeds in similar towns in Germany.
But not in Australia. Public transport can work, but does not now work in Melbourne & Victoria. There are issues in the approach of the State Government, private contractors and the various ideologically-driven desperadoes on this issue.
The biggest issue is the ideological gunfight set-up by far-Right gunslingers like Alan Moran, of the disingenuously-titled ‘Institute for Public Affairs’.
And …

Videos, Youtube — What is so great about the USA is that people just ‘get on’ with new ideas.
Youtube has become part of the election process asking for submissions from voters.
it may not be as effective as traditional media yet, but as truly high-speed broadband video grows it can only become more important in political democracy.
So, watch this space!

Rudd’s 2020 summit is a good idea, but will it fulfil its promise?

ANALYSIS, Global — A lot of people keep telling me they dislike religion because it leads to war.
There are a plethora of voices in the media crying for atheism in the Left, on the other hand the Right, have stated that anyone who doesn’t worship God in the prescribed manner is unpatriotic to their country.

The prosaic reality is that modern wars are about trade, power balances, resources like oil and water, or land for expanding populations.
Further, the reality is, in short, that imbalances create war. Imbalances in resources (and …

2THINKNOW COMMENT, USA — It’s easy to talk about change.
Obama chants change like a mantra. But what change?

Not all change is clearly good, some is clearly bad.
The current White House changed things in USA, the broader Americas and the world. But it could not be argued to be positive change on any level.
I want change. But positive change.
And I am not convinced Obama knows how to do positive change. It’s difficult.
We need proof of his ideas and policies. Specifics. Like Australia’s Left leader Kevin Rudd gave before the election.
My gut …

ANALYSIS, Global — In many Western countries, as well as elsewhere in the world speeding has become popular.
It gets dangerous when aggressive drivers speed in suburban streets where young children play. It is playing dice with school-children’s lives.
And I have lost count of how many times I have almost been run over in the city. Especially by aggressive taxi drivers.
My aging mother has also been almost hit by 4 wheel drives 3 times in a 6 week period last year crossing at a zebra crossing.
In Melbourne, Australia, aggressive driving is …

COMMENT, Balkans –I hate ignorance.
And bad ideas in nice policy binders.
Kosovo independence for 2 million Kosovars is a bad idea in a nice binder.
There’s only 2 million Kosovars. Balance that against the population of the Balkans, many of whom are not for the independence, as they will be the ones likely dragged into a war.
As Bismarck once said, “Albania, it’s a geographic expression.” (well that’s what he said about Albania, but you get the idea about Kosovo – which is even smaller.)
Families like yours and mine will die in their …