The Australian stock market has been stuck in the 4500 band on the major stock indices for the last week. Mainly on the back of the Greek crisis.

Investors in index funds of Australian stocks, and superannuation must be asking how things can get better?

4,500 points is about right…

For the last 3 years, I’ve been saying to anyone who would listen, including readers that the true value of Australian stock indices  is around 4,500 points assuming a recession.

It dropped below that last year, and is now back in sub-4,500 territory  from highs in November 2007.

The reality is the Australian stock market is trading in a band around 4,500 points based on fundamentals.

Why?

Australia lives in strange economic times, as there are both deflationary and inflationary pressures. Coupled with an over-inflated property market, it seems that Australia is awash on the tide of money flows from  rocks and resources.

And there’s a whopper of an asset inflation bubble. House prices should not  sit around 8 or 9 times salary. Land banking and stocks of empty passively held apartments are rife.

These factors exist in what 2thinknow identify as hollowed out job market of mainly blue-collar jobs. With a lot of white collar unemployment. This means Australian. fundamentals look like the U.S. except for those gazillion metric tons of resources.

Add to that some stimulus ending, and the fact aggregate numbers disguise trends, and you have a problem.

It’s the market, not the stock.

Individual stocks will change and have changed – e.g. Australia’s big bank CBA dipped below $30 and has been well above $50. But falls in some, make up in gains for the others.

So stock pickers, and the smart money, can make money.

As to the indices — I noted* to readers here on October 2007, that “I would sell any shares I had that were not ‘low-risk’ prior to April… I would sell them now.” So that turned out 1 month before the peak.

But the innovation, the next state change, is a case of probabilities. Neither resemble a flood of money into average investors hands.

The only way this will change, is if the fundamentals change…

Keep innovating,

Christopher Hire

* P.S. Please note: I DO NOT OR CANNOT GIVE FINANCIAL ADVICE. This is a general opinion on trends and state change as part of innovation analysis. I am an innovation expert, NOT a financial planner. But then you knew all of that!

After 3 years of publication, with our 3rd birthday this

In June 2010, the Globe Innovator changes will be announced. We’re looking at updating the publication, to provide more ongoing content on innovation across cities, business and policy. We’re also examining more frequent shorter content centred on single ideas.

Let’s look back over the last 3 years. There’s already been a lot of change since our 2007 inception, and what it is about that change – is that it changes us.

A Jaunt around the Boston Common. Our birthday of our first post from Boston MA, on April 23rd , 2007 tracks how far this site has come from a travel journal of innovation in cities worldwide. > Read our first post on Boston Walking City.

This was during the announcement of the first Innovation Cities ranking 2007 (now Index), and first Global Innovation Review process. I was staying in the Westin Copley Place at the time, and writing about Innovation Cities.

Cities of Innovation. Since that time, this year 2thinknow are into the 4th year of Innovation Cities, now featuring a Report, Program, Index and Framework (published in the aforementioned report).

Changing Formats. Over the same period this site has morphed immediately into a journal of change in politics and foreign affairs, then briefly into a journal of a broader view of innovation, and a finally an innovation analysis / news site moving domains only in 2009, and growing to its current standalone domain address.

Web 2.0. I still recall the panicked responses to my (albeit overwhelming) first seminar on web 2.0 in Melbourne, Australia later in 2007. Now some of the newbies of that period are leading social media voices in Australia.

The GFC Prediction. During this time our readers saw us (well, mainly me!) predict a “September 2008 shock turmoil event” for shares, a U.S. recession and even a potential depression as far back as October 2007 and in detail on December 2007. I said Australian shares would fall to 4,500 at the same time most forecasters saw only “blue sky”.

At the same time in February 2008, I warned our readers of U.S. bank nationalisation. this was foreseen by virtually no major U.S. commentators… Ultimately though, I was one of the handful of voices like Harvey Dent who analysed the basics, and saw a different view.

The prediction differed in that they were specific not general, time-limited and contained no ‘counter-predictions’.

The one that got away. The one area I was wrong is Australian house prices. I believed I undervalued 4 factors – 1) the sentimental flight to bricks and mortars of scared investors, 2) the government willingness to prop-up property prices at all costs, 3) relatedly, the size of the consequences of falling prices to create a general economic collapse and 4) foreign purchasing of Australian assets due to trade and legislation.

Wither Finance. Yes, I warned of the financial services industry over-dominance at a city-level in 2007 book – the Global Innovation Review 2007 Annual. Indeed, this was a major reason why I took the sometimes criticised decision to rank London low for innovation in 2007. I (rightly) saw that creativity-led innovation would drive successful cities into the future, all socio-political factors otherwise being equal.

Some more thoughts…

Often this site became a test ground for these ideas in other speeches, workshops or printed reports. Sometime the ideas copped flack – like my infamous bogan piece railing against Australian anti-intellectualism, which we later archived as it came to dominate all comments and over-shadow ideas. When Melbourne’s Lord Mayor Robert Doyle was elected, anti-bogan hoon-ism (if there’s such a term that can be conceived) was part of his platform. I felt that in some small way we contributed to that.

Ideas need testing, and thinking needs validating – and occasionally rejecting. Like markets readers are great validators (or not) of ideas. Whilst I always preferred civility, some of our commenters were not so kind.

For this reason, I see change as a process, innovation as a process, and this site as a testing ground for ideas leading that process. But it is this testing and validation that enables ideas to turn into implementable business concepts, and ultimately models. And 2thinknow is at that stage.

Now we stand in 2010, awaiting the ides of August-November 2010 to know how deep the trouble goes. As Mises and Hayek would point out you can only delay the inevitable, inevitably. And I see 2 cycles that have a probability of occurring, but the outcome 2021 is the same.

Oh, and yes, updates have been non-existent over the last 6 months. Why? Well, we are in implementation phase for launching new products and services, and Globe Innovator, is a part of that.

The key is to be relevant, and commercial, and that”s what we’re working on ensuring our relevance. But the times must match the ideas, and the ideas must match the times. Those who see only the din and clash, who hear sound and fury, miss the sense of what actually is happening. It’s ripples in a pond.

Right now, we face an uncertain period, conversely, that can be perceived with certainty. So, as an innovation agency, we are seeking to position this publication at the right point in the continuum from innovation to conservatism, relative to the time. So, this publication must adapt to the current global circumstance. There is also, always, the value equation.

By the by, in the mean time, I will post some economic thoughts soon, regarding innovation policy and process and economic effects at the macro and micro level.

P.S. Thanks to those of you who have written us saying you miss our updates!

Keep innovating,

Christopher Hire

High property prices in Australia are being propped up by wide-spread policy, and reducing innovation in the economy.

Today, Chris Zappone, a journalist at Melbourne newspapers The Age, and Fairfax Digital, wrote an article today reporting on a Reserve Bank speech, which discussed house prices. The telling point is in the final paragraphs:

In the speech, “the RBA seemed reasonably relaxed on the issue of housing stress-debt suggesting that international comparisons are difficult to make and that households appear to have ‘the capacity to sustain’ relatively high house prices,” said RBC Capital Markets economist Su-Lin Ong.

“This partly reflects the RBA’s view  – highlighted in some of its other research – that those with the highest debt levels are generally best able to manage it, the impact of accumulated compulsory superannuation savings, and some factors specific to Australia which encourage the faster paydown of debt.”

University of Melbourne finance professor Les Coleman said rising house prices was asset inflation by a different name.

“The RBA talks up a storm about controlling inflation for good and proper reasons… it’s no different with assets.”

“If you have rampant inflation it induces people to make poor financial decisions.”

“High home prices sustainable: RBA”, 25th November 2009.

Both have a point. As it happens, Chris and I have had intermittent discussions on house prices.

My view, is that start-ups and innovation are lowered by high house prices. Partly this is informed by data from Demographia on housing affordability.

On the other hand, economist Hernando De Soto, makes the point that mortgaging houses is a source of business finance.

The key is balance. Policy favours housing investment over any other asset class.

My trend analysis is that median house prices optimally should be between 11 and 44% less, depending on where you live. This is based on 2 income households, a transition Australian society made previously.

My concern for Australia, is that tacit support for property prices is blocking productive use of the Australian economy and favouring short-termism.

So in my view, the United States, Canadian and West European cities – in general, with some exceptions – may well fare better in creating the next series of high-growth companies from today’s start-ups.

Those who would like a more-rounded view on which cities 2thinknow pick as potential innovation “winners”, in the next few years, can view in the Innovation Cities Index city rankings. Bear in mind these are rankings of cities with potential for broad-based innovation, not industry-specific.

The 2thinknow Innovation Cities Analysis Report outlines how finance and property, fits among the 162 innovation indicators, to lead innovation in cities.

Interested parties can contact 2thinknow to commission a specific innovation analyst report on how property prices effect innovation within their country or city.

Keep innovating,

Christopher Hire
Executive Director
2thinknow.

Progress is not dead. The Earth is not flat. And history is not at an end.

Progress has changed. The Jet Age, the Petro-Chemical & Computer Age are not the drivers. Now perhaps it is, the Creative Age.

It is, the artists’ turn.

Daniel Pink posited it in Harvard Business Review, in saying that the MFA (Master of Fine Arts) is the new MBA. Well judging by enrolments, we’re not quite there yet. So Pink is ahead of the curve.

When Financial analysis frameworks are taught everywhere – and after (or during) a global financial mess – perhaps the true Innovation source is Arts & Culture. This is likely to be a hindsight observation for many.

Design is one aspect of arts. As a former Graphic designer, I see design everywhere. Everything you buy has been intentionally designed. And Sustainable design is emerging as the big challenge & big opportunity.

And it is Opportunity that will lift us out of Economic Crisis.

Not massive top-down thinking. Not more Wal-Marts. No. Wal-Mart was once Sam Walton, and the next Wal-Mart will be another Sam Walton. Or Jobs & Wozniak. Or Hewlett & Packard.

It’s 2 guys or gals in a garage building the next Apple, HP, maybe. But ever more insidiously, maybe not.

Decentralized Studios.

Maybe it’s a series of decentralized nodes. A small series of studios, all inter-linked collaborating & ideas & connected from Budapest to Bucharest to Curitiba to Paris to Johannesburg to Adelaide to Detroit to Winnipeg.

It is not where you are, it is what you see, what you share & how creative you are.

Keep innovating,

Christopher Hire
Executive Director

Today, we break for an story from George Hall. Rather than give you analysis, I decided to let one of the active Victoria Bushfire tweeters tell the story in his own words.

George Hall covered the Victorian bushfires and acted as information conduit via twitter & social media during the bushfires, and is active in twitter and social media in Melbourne. Twitter: @geehall1& Video Website geehall1.blip.tv

An Introduction…

I’d been on Twitter only a short few weeks when the bushfires occurred, but the day the fires started, my niece was in one of the danger areas (Churchill).  I remembered how handy Twitter had been in the Mumbai and Hudson River situations and got on it initially to get quick, relevant information that might help my niece.

After her situation was more under control after first week, I stayed on the twitter hashtags #bushfires and #vicfires to see if I could help thebroader community, not just my family.  Over the course of the  situation, I helped retweet messages from @cfa_updates, @774melbourne and others.

The more helpful, timely information flowing thru theTwitter situation the better.  Even ex-pats overseas kept up-to-date via our (collective) Twitter feeds.

Twitter is a Quick Conduit.

It’s a brilliant conduit for quick, early information, but does still need occasionally to look for confirmation of some things.

Even during the bushfires, one or two items had to be independently verified and it was sensible to still look for that sort of confirmation.

Where telecommunications are still up, it serves as a much quicker way to know there is a bushfire right in one’s area.  The first tweets about any fire are almost instantaneous, as long as you’ve got your computer or mobile phone app monitoring.  This is obviously quicker than any other news source.

Bushfire Region Reactions.

I actually haven’t heard much from actual fire victims/survivors, except for one of my regular Twitter correspondents.  Most of the reaction to my use of Twitter came from other people involved in the volunteer/emergency effort over Twitter.

@cfa_updates, thanked me for retweeting, and generally, other people I worked with on Twitter during the bushfire time generally thought I was doing a reasonable job.

But there were a lot of people who were doing the same thing on other hashtags, like @bootload over on #kinglake.  Special commendation to @retrogrrl for heaps of tweets regarding relief efforts, etc.

Twitter as Attention tool.

It got a lot of attention for relief efforts and appeals.  Twitter helped keep people like Stephen Fry informed (@stephenfry) and kept relatives and friends overseas apprised of the situation.

In terms of direct help, we still have to hear from people who might have picked up a helpful tweet from Twitter in the actual crisis areas.

One real problem with the fires was that a lot of telecommunications in some fire areas was out of action.

Twitter, in the future.

It opens up new ways of keeping in touch, of being aware of opportunities and important issues,  and even works great just for simple get-togethers.  In that way, it helps bring a community together.

Used positively, it’s quite handy and helpful.  And in time, we’ll think up even more ways to utilize it better for helping the community.  It’s limited only by the imagination of the user.

Thanks to George Hall for the above first-hand commentary on twitter & bushfires.

The 2thinknow View is that techology adoption as an innovation is driven by usefulness to our lives, in this case under trying conditions. In 2thinknow models we see innovation adoption as driven by end-user transparency on benefits. Find out more – contact us.

Most of you are aware I’ve been covering CeBIT – the Asia Pacific leading technology & Innovation fair in Sydney last week.

I was kindly invited to analyse innovations at the event as a guest of Jackie Taranto of Hannover Fairs, organizers of the Conferences & Exhibitions.

Some Coverage.

Tweets: Also my live tweeting (@christopherhire) attracted quite a lot of attention; especially as twitter-penetration not high in either the AusInnovation or eGovernment forums.

Radio: You can hear a CeBIT wrap-up from Ryan Egan producer of the TechStream Program; for of ABC Radio Australia. My innovation focused analysis is on the final 5 minutes of the MP3:

About ABC Radio Techstream and MP3

Media mentions: Many of the innovative themes & companies (like Daniel Draper’s Net Fox) that I discovered I will be mentioning in future interviews or media.

Articles: It was good to see some familiar faces; but also to meet new innovative stands. In a coming analysis, there will be a list of some innovations you may not yet have heard of.

Whilst there were many more; I selected a few that have global potential.

They will all be posted here where you are reading now: www.2thinknow.com/innovation

More in Print: In addition I’m working on some print magazine articles & a book; and will post here if any of those mention CeBIT themes, speakers & exhibiting innovators.

What’s Next…

My next article(s) will be the series 5 Key Themes for Business & Government from CeBIT.

If you’d prefer to listen: download the MP3 (last 5 minutes, though > I thoroughly recommend you listen to Ryan’s whole Techstream program on your mobile device!)

Hope this is a useful Executive Summary of CeBIT for you all!

Stephen Conroy, Australia’s Minister for all things Digital gave an interesting speech at Cebit AusInnovate Conference just now.

Senator Conroy’s point was that technology, especially world-class infrastructure like National Broadband Network enables innovation. Building the network properly will create the world-class infrastructure to enable Australia to ‘punch above weight.

Enabling Innovation

Innovation Cities (the 2thinknow program for measuring & delivering innovation in cities) is based on ideas, implemented (largely, infrastructure) and with market access. Created prior to Conroy’s election – Innovation Cities – explains how innovation can be created in Cities. One third of this model is Implementation. Primarily that’s infrastructure.

The Wholesale/ Retail split, as understood, and’ fibre to home’ both align exactly with how 2thinknow see an Australian evolving as an ‘Innovation Nation’. Broadly, my professional view, the correct roles need to be allocated to Government & Markets.

Which is interesting given the following discussion.

Tension: Markets vs Government.

Conroy’s speech lead into the panel discussion; Narelle Clark (CSIRO ICT) is making a good point about ‘regulation’ ‘not killing innovation’. CSIRO, head honcho, Dr David Skellern initially raised regulation.

It’s almost a Government vs. Markets discussion. The tension has already started.

Probably productive as innovation occurs in tension between ‘regulation’ and ‘markets’.

But Narelle’s concern, paraphrasing, is not ‘killing innovation’ by over-thinking the framework. And not ‘over-engineering’ the aspects that belong in markets. David Skelton’s concern is seems to be ensuring that regulation supports a long-term network, in a technical view.

It’s an interesting question. Check out more or comment with your observation on twitter. http://twitter.com/christopherhire

(I’m here live-blogging about Innovation at AusInnovate Conference at CeBIT, at Darling Harbour in Sydney. )

Merry Christmas to all our regular Western & Christian readers, and new visitors.

Innovation Cities 2009.

After adjusting the data file & criteria in 2008, flagship 2thinknow Innovation Cities Rankings are bigger & better than ever before.

Ranking more cities on more criteria, the 2thinknow Innovation Cities Index is a benchmark for what constitutes Innovation in Cities worldwide.

Launching January 09, final rankings will be announced to participating cities in May 09, with the Index published June 2009.

This will be announced, and relatedly an entirely new section of the 2thinknow website will be launched.

2thinknow Online.

2008 was the year the web & social web came of age globally. 2thinknow have spent 2008 experimenting with new forms of communication & publishing.

The dramatically revamped 2thinknow website with a full listing of products & services will be released. In addition, we have finalised our social media partnerships, and those sites will be coming online in February 09.

This Journal.

The purpose of the Global Innovation Conversation is to capture global innovation. Accordingly in 2009 we will be implementing a new format focussed on innovation across the world. More news soon.

More Trends.

2thinknow correctly predicted the economic crisis as far back as October 2007 (describing a September shock event), as well as deep US recession and the peak of the Australian stock market.

Watch for our new trend product offerings, using our pioneering original technique ‘Nascent Trend Analysis’ (which allowed us to make these predictions).

Shortly, before NYE 08, we’ll be posting 2009 predictions. So watch out!

Think Global.

2thinknow think global, act local. We will be reducing our emphasis on Australia & NZ and increasing emphasis on the US, UK & German markets in 2009.

We will in 2009 be moving our web presence to a US data centre, so the link & CGI problems we hear about from time-to-time will be gone (It’s now almost impossible to get decent ICT or back-office services in Australia by US standards).

Eagle-eyed readers would have spotted our new logo & the start of our new branding. The visual idea is “turning the corner”. Neat.

2thinknow’s new logo & branding will be rolled out in very early 2009 across all web & printed materials.

We are also planning to be moving our long delayed back office arrangements to San Francisco, Vienna or Frankfurt sometime in 2009. All the remaining broken links & issues with the website or global telephony will be resolved by January 11 2009, once we use the Xmas season to test & do a final roll-out.

News.

Watch this site for exciting new updates starting February 2009.

Meanwhile – keep up-to-date with 2thinknow, and the issues, 24/7 on twitter – www.twitter.com/2thinknow

Merry Christmas to all & to all a good night!

NEWS. India. Mumbai. — 80 are dead, between 200-900 injured, based on initial reports after terrorist attacks in Mumbai India.

Piles of corpses have been reported under the stairs in the Taj. Foreigners are held hostage, and scores of Indian citizens have been injured or killed.

Terrorists, Deccan Mujaheddin, have claimed responsibility.

5 ways to Track the events real time.

1. Start

2thinknow channel on twitter has been posting updates.

2. Broaden

Search using hashtags, a twitter related convention. http://search.twitter.com/search?q=%23Mumbai

3. Track News.

For more news track media on Google News

4. See Where.

Google Maps, such as this one, by Omar, from Doha, Qatar.

5. Read Live Commentary.

Numerous people are posting blogs, so search on Technorati.

That was a live blog post from http://www.ultrabrown.com/posts/alive

Or Technorati Search mumbai.

www.technorati.com/search/mumbai?authority=a4&language=en

Also check out: http://globalvoicesonline.org/

Get the word out!

These horrific attacks have potential to impact present & future India, BRIC countries and the globe. Such attacks have no place in a civilized world.

Yet it seems, many mainstream media are not as interested as they might be, prefeerring to cover more minor local stories.

Select the important news, not more mindless Murdoch-drivel.

Blog, write & comment on Mumbai, using social media .

Please note not all sources & commentary have been verified. We have no reason to believe the above sources are false, but cannot verify in real time.

Keep in the Loop.

Please post any social media resources below in Comments or on twitter (using #mumbai in post).

Or if you’re a journalist, you may find these resources useful in your analysis.

ANALYSIS. Melbourne. – In a common-sense decision, State leader John Brumby declared in Melbourne, that the Victorian government would support local manufacturing.

According to The Age, the Victorian Government would buy local, even when local may be slightly more expensive.

Well done.

Local innovation, global context.

It is rarely acknowledged that the price of Chinese manufacturing does not include all costs.

It does not include decent wages for labour. Nor environmental impacts. Nor legal rights. And although few now say it, freedom of speech.

What Chinese prices do include is defacto subsidies on steel & inputs.

The Chinese price is not always the true price.

What do all world-leading economies have?

Strong domestic economies. With strong local markets.

Even now we’re talking about demand from emerging China’s domestic market purchasing goods that would otherwise be exported.

Government is often the largest customer in many markets. Which is why government’s buying local is important.

One factor that demolished ICT in Australia, is a lack of Government local development of software.

The 2thinknow View.

Build local markets to support innovation.

The key to wealth where people live is local jobs, local economy, local innovation. Sure excess can be exported, as can specialization benefit.

It is inefficient to manufacture all goods in any location. Trade historically has strong benefits, as does specialization. Shipping and economies of scale can be more efficient on  for some goods & services.

But in order to have infrastructure to export, local industries need local support. Australia has returned to spending too much energy selling the volatile inputs, not enough on value-add outputs.

China has Local Support.

China supports it’s domestic suppliers. China imports services & resources from Australia. China does not naively destroy its own industries, as Australia does.

During its wealthiest periods, the US has supported local manufacturing. Local skills. Local jobs. Local economy. In recent years this has been forgotten.

Winners & losers is fine in theory. Yes, overt subsidies do weaken quality, as do state monopolies. Competition is key. Yet competition cannot survive long against subsidized competition.

The 2thinknow view is that the key to local wealth is a strong domestic market to build upon for exporting.

Good decision, Victoria.

[youtube]zJjKh6H6-yA[/youtube]

VIDEOS. Austria. – An interesting modern ‘design-hotel’ concept from Austria.

Some nice design touches for minimalists, and ideas for those who love designing with space.

Particularly liked the fireplace integration.

What do you think? (I am less a modernist, preferring the classical Bristol in Vienna). Perhaps you love clean lines of this modernism or post-modernist design.

Or perhaps, like me, you prefer Classical design?

COMMENT. Global. – Trains, and rail is a resurgent transport platform.

For some great examples of trains, check out this slide-show on slideshare.

Safe, Cleaner, Practical.

Despite increasingly shrill voices on the right-wing think-tanks, calling for less public transport, rail has clear benefits, visible to all.

Most countries around the world can see the benefits. China, Japan, France, Austria, all are investing in rail. Why do you love trains?

Here at 2thinknow, next are 7 reasons why global trends support a rail renaissance.

COMMENT. Melbourne — A colleague of mine, of mature age, a professional director, told me he does not understand one thing about Melbourne’s directors.

How so many directors keep getting roles with less than stellar performance.

As a competent, good Director, he is mystified.

Shhh…

Of course no-one in the community says this publicly. I am a member of peak body AICD, and never heard it there! Truth begone! Top-down folk there.

With some Directors, often I get the feeling they want to investigate, interrogate you, and pick your brains. That’s if they can’t find out whose son you are.

It’s like university lecturers. Publicly, they will not tell you many are pressured to accept students who have not acquired necessary skills. That was struck from an ACS report on the ICT industry in 2006.

Not an Australian disease alone, off-balance sheet disasters, and debt-buyouts are rubber stamped by the professional board class.

Boards need to assert more influence on the managerial class. Michael West makes the point, as well.

Ians?

Catherine Deveny, called them Ians, yesterday.

The public service is infested with these types, we need them.

Innovators typically can’t fill out forms, do admin or accounting. Ad agency people I met are lucky to have matching socks. But maybe that’s intentional!

When someone does something innovative, Ians add all their costs, projections and overhead. And outsource it. And pretty soon it’s too expensive to do.

Often they tend to be judgmental of innovation. Or not cautious enough, employing outdated metrics to measure it. Cost, cost, cost is the cry.

The old needs the young to renew. And innovators with judgment. To make revenue from opportunity.

Eddington’s $20 Billion of Waste.

I have read quite a bit on Eddington’s plan for Melbourne.

In short, a couple of $10 billion tunnels.

As usual, rather than fixing infrastructure and managing it well, we just throw some big numbers at it. We perhaps, shock, need competent management of what we have, within a new paradigm of innovation.

I saw Eddington speak, and found there was a lack of intellectual depth in his arguments.

West mentions Eddington’s other interests. Eddington, for his mettle, was director of failing Allco. Allco, and David Coe, tried to take over Qantas.

Had Qantas been taken over Qantas would now be in serious trouble, given the proposed debt load. Where are the questions in and of the Qantas board?

Perhaps it’s the ‘don’t rock the boat’ survival instinct for boards?

And I don’t – unlike a few people – believe diversity, or gender, have much to do with it. Margaret Jackson supported the Qantas Allco bid.

Common sense & ethics are gender neutral.

Yet right now, Eddington is being made king in deciding Australia’s infrastructure priorities.

And, I can’t picture Sir Rod trying to get to the work on the Glen Waverley line.

Money, mo’ money.

Out of touch.

Problem is, the idea that you have to spend huge sums of money is a typical idiotic bureaucratic and corporate response.

The collapse of ABC and others, pricks the balloon of some of the glowing analysts reports sitting in shelves everywhere. How efficient ABC was at childcare? When profits came from chicanery of property development zero-shuffling. Allco. Centro.

Analysts writing those reports told retirees to ‘hold-tight’ as stocks fell.

Opportunity, instead.

In the 2thinknow view, there are so many opportunities. Not for costs, but profits.

All that is needed is a new understanding of business.

Instead of looking at sustainability as a cost look at it as a revenue opportunity.

Transport is a money-losing venture because the Government are incompetent. The managers are incompetent. And everyone is hamstrung.

But there are opportunities, 2thinknow can identify for profitability.

But it requires dropping the mind-set of costs. Put Garnaut in unimaginative too. Yes let’s all eat roo meat. That’s realistic!!

Action Arnold.

California is getting on with the job building Australian solar plants that can’t be built here, because everybody is busy paying Deveny’s Ians to write reports.

I would like to see some intelligent opportunity from Rudd not more committees, waffling academics and usual corporate suspects. I am still waiting.

Incompetence of MBA.

When I was at AGSM I was struck by how incompetent & inaccurate the MBA program was. The curriculum represents the negatives of business, advising virtually all free market, no regulation, debt-finance.

In only one example, one of my senior classmates from HP in the IT class felt the lecturer had no practical concept of IT, despite his ‘experience’. The lecturer is now fortunately shoving pins into corporations consulting for a big firm, where his theory will be useless.

AGSM, a pre-eminent as a business school teaches dogma, not how to think.

The great lecturers there, Alex Malley & Grant Foster, were great in the practical aspects of their subjects. They had real commercial experience.

It’s time we stopped praising academic waffling mediocrity, or corporate climbers, because they just have an imprimatur.

It’s an opportunity for an ideas-based meritocracy. A great conversation of great ideas and great minds.

Instead?

ABC was incompetent and badly run. Turns out they had no special skills, despite analysts glowing reports.

ABC couldn’t even do their 123s of accounting, according to Julia Gillard in Question Time.

Allco was at best optimistic, at worst, fill in an adjective.

Centro was stupid & naive.

Babcock & Brown’s model has serious ethical issues.

Macquarie. Sydney airport. Toll roads. Mmm. Kaboom.

NAB is badly run, but at least they have money.

There’s more blood in the streets. Because the people running these places focussed on costs, debt and lacked operational management.

In short, did they do something? Other than zero-shuffling?

Next for Australia?

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Qantas forced to merge. And Macquarie in trouble.

And I suggest we look at high-debt business that have low-margins. Kaboom.

Interestingly Time must lose money on its flagship. No adverts.

Business is done by doing. Let’s thin the ranks of the executive dead wood and managerial pretenders who do nothing but manage-up.

We need those Ians, but let’s not pretend they have original ideas. Nor vision.

We get in to trouble when we believe our corporate PR.

Australians who want to get ahead, go offshore, that’s the message.

Meritocracy of ideas is a thought whose time has come.

COMMENT, NSW — Today the NSW government release the mini-budget. ABC have it here.

A patch/hatchet job to make up for years of fundamental neglect.

The 3 Amigos: Carr, Iemma, Costa.

Neglect under Bob Carr (especially), Morris Iemma & on to Nathan Rees.OK, Nathan hasn’t had a chance yet.

A special word goes to the spectacularly self-aggrandising Michael Costa. Costa managed to leave fingerprints 3 inches deep on several disastrous portfolios.

Infrastructure.

In an economic & property boom, no funding was spent on:

1) Transport

2) Schools

3) Infrastructure

4) Urban Planning

5) Roads

6) Energy infrastructure.

Wasted opportunity.

Property Developers.

Instead, the whole process was outsourced to private sector, property developers.

The NSW State Government were warned by their own public service, about this.

I worked for the NSW State government & professionally heard incidents that made me cringe in NSW. I won’t speak about specifics.

In general, the public service system is politicised, privatised and ideologically broken.

There are frustrated intelligent individuals. But I can say the system they work in is grindingly inefficient. It kills innovation.

T actually be competent inside the NSW system is in many departments is unrewarding. Sometimes, impossible.

Ahoy, HMAS NSW.

Good people in Government don’t rock the boat.

And this boat is a sinking ship.

Fortunately, Sydney hit rock bottom in 2006 & 2007, and is now in the nascent stage of rebuilding.

The key issue is ethics. The government is focussed on personal interest, and money; not on the long-term good of the State. NSW could do with a few good Catholic Democrats.

And less left-wing atheist capitalists, who have no faith in their own ideology of the Left.

But as usual, recovery will require local innovation.

The NSW government don’t deserve their jobs.  They are good for nothing.

If there was a case for oversight of politicians, this is it.

Do you live in NSW? Have you seen it’s recent decline… ?

COMMENT, USA –Few people understand how the economic paradigm has shifted.

2thinknow do.

We predicted it would shift, and that their would be an economic crisis. Correctly. Back in October 2007, before others.

If you would like to see what it all means, including Obama’s election, see these slides on slideshare.

Opportunity for Local Innovation.

There are a lot of economic opportunities out there, but bright minds need opportunity.

Creativity needs its voice. Anyway, look at the slides.

I hope they help you in your quest to profit in the Bear Market.

Thanks to SlideShare for spreading this message, by placing the slideshow on the front of their website.

And to all readers & netizens who send us positive messages about our work in nascent trend analysis, used to predict the economic crisis.