ANALYSIS, Australia — On 2nd October 2007 I risked the metaphorical laughter of the Gods and used 2thinknow innovation models to make some predictions.

Economic and political predictions for 2008 and beyond. How did I go so far?

Well. Very well. Accurate predictions are difficult, but I have a unique method of identifying and qualitatively predicting trends.

Predictions were made October 2nd, 2007 here. They have not been edited.

Here’s the very interesting results. I am excited!!!

1. Predictions on Australian Election:

“At the election, Kevin Rudd will win government with 51-54% of the total vote cast, my likely calculation is 52%.”

This prediction was made 6 weeks before the election, with the polls at a totally different margin and most media voices oscillating. 2thinknow were the clear voice.

Drumroll, please!

CORRECT. This was within a l% margin of error the actual result.

We predicted the main reason Howard government would lose was Industrial Relations law of WorkChoices.

Both political parties agreed afterwards this was the main reason for the loss.

“We believe Howard will hold onto his own seat by 0.25-0.75% of the vote, however if he loses his seat to McKew it will be on environmental issues.”

WRONG. Sort of. Sitting Prime Minister Howard lost his seat, but it was within a 1% margin of error. Environmental issues were a factor, but so were local issues.

2. Economics

“The quality of credit held by institutions (which is an unknown) will have an effect. My main concern though is the US economy, as according to leading US Economists, many of the Bush government measures have damaged the economy.”

CORRECT. Although our voice was a lonely voice in October 2nd the assessment of UN, Goldman Sachs and other common voices , as of 3 months later, now agree.

Our curve analysis allows us to see further ahead than others, even “experts” on issues.

Another Prediction on Stocks

“Unless, I were an educated investor, I would sell any shares I had that were not ‘low-risk’ prior to April. As a moderately risk averse person I would sell them now.”

Actually, November was the Peak of the Australian stock market. Stocks are now down below 6,000 as of today on the All Ordinaries Index. The Index is trending down. It may bounce a little.

On the day of our prediction the Index was 6,667.

In November the highpoint was 6,853.

CORRECT. If you had sold most common shares in October, you would be better off.

Now whilst we cannot offer specific financial advice, reality is we picked the “top of the market.”

2thinknow once again were able to do this using nascent trend analysis, something I have been working on that allows me to predict which trends would succeed.

There is nothing published on nascent trend analysis, except some limited information in the Global Innovation Review, as to what trends we seeing having the biggest impact in 2009 and 2013.

But, reality is, with good information on a topic, 2thinknow can in some specific occasions predict the start, end or peak of some trends.

Nobody has yet been able to do this that I am aware of, but 2thinknow.

These are of course interim results, but I wonder what you think of my 2008 economic predictions here for Australia or my 2008 onwards.

I should like to reiterate my pre-Christmas predictions of a 2008 US economic recession were ahead of Goldman Sachs and the UN predictions.

Predictions of US recession in 2008 here.

I still believe these predictions will hold true, and may be at the worse end of the spectrum.

Now let us see if the remaining predictions we made are accurate.

Let me know what you think. I am excited. Nascent trend analysis is something i have been working on for 2thinknow.

Cool-hunting! Bah humbug!

I hope you find that interesting!

take care

Christopher